Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Burger singled to center, Hensley scored, Edwards to second.2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Fortes hit sacrifice fly to center, Wall scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Arcia homered to left (408 feet).0–4
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Olson homered to right (374 feet), Ozuna scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Riley homered to right (342 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 64%
- ML MIA +165 / ATL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 62.1%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -177
- MIA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.6 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −11 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +86 Elo | ATL 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3018–34 | Road vs home | 30–217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–58 | 49–57 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 37–48 |
| Underdog | 47–39 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 61–45–1 | 38–65–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–14 ATL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.