Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- DJ HerzPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sánchez singled to center, Mitchell scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Chourio scored on Finnegan wild pitch, Mitchell to third on wild pitch by Finnegan.4–6
- 8Chourio scored on Finnegan wild pitch, Mitchell to third on wild pitch by Finnegan.4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 7Hoskins homered to left center (386 feet).2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 5Wood singled to center, L. García Jr. scored, Wood to second.1–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 5Chourio singled to center, Frelick scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 3L. García Jr. homered to right center (400 feet).0–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 1Call singled to center, Blankenhorn scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1Blankenhorn doubled to center, Wood scored and Ruiz scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Ruiz singled to right, L. García Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML MIL -120 / WSH +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.8 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −3 | MIL: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +42 Elo | MIL 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 6th of 3031–26 | Road vs home | 23–2827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–47 | 61–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–32 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 35–15 | 52–36 |
| Overs–unders | 61–46 | 55–54–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–5 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.