Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jonah BrideBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting3-4
- Luke JacksonPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Burger hit sacrifice fly to right, Hensley scored.7–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 4Bride homered to left (356 feet), A. Sánchez scored and Edwards scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 4Edwards reached on infield single to shortstop, Pache scored, A. Sánchez to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4A. Sánchez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Lopez scored, Pache third.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pache singled to center, Rivera scored, Lopez to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 69%
- ML MIA +205 / ATL -255
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 68.2%, market 68.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -219
- MIA +219 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 5.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +16 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +133 Elo | ATL 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 66.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 68.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 28th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 27th of 3019–36 | Road vs home | 32–227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–60 | 51–58 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 39–49 |
| Underdog | 48–41 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 61–48–1 | 38–68–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–16 ATL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.