Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sánchez homered to center (444 feet), Contreras scored.3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 8Contreras grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Mitchell scored, Chourio out at second.1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Wood tripled to left, Abrams scored, Yepez scored and Ruiz scored.0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1L. García Jr. homered to center (413 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML MIL -125 / WSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 4.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −10 | MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +73 Elo | MIL 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 7th of 3031–27 | Road vs home | 24–2827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–48 | 62–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–33 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 35–15 | 53–36 |
| Overs–unders | 62–46 | 56–54–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–6 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.