Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4
- Bryce ElderPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Contreras doubled to left, Chourio scored.10–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–0
- 6Contreras doubled to right, Mitchell scored and Ortiz scored.9–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 39–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking9–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 29–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–0
- 4Turang singled to right, Frelick scored, Turang to second.7–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 3Adames homered to center (415 feet), Contreras scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 2Ortiz singled to left, Hoskins scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Adames homered to center (426 feet), Contreras scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Contreras tripled to first, Turang scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML MIL +110 / ATL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 51.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- MIL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 4.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −14 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +7 Elo | ATL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 10th of 3031–28 | Road vs home | 32–238th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–49 | 51–59 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–34 | 39–50 |
| Underdog | 35–15 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 62–47 | 38–69–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–7 ATL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.