Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching2.2 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ortiz singled to right, Monasterio scored, Frelick to second.16–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play16–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 216–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging16–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul16–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 116–7
- 9Frelick singled to left, Contreras scored, Monasterio to second.15–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play15–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 215–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 115–7
- 8Ozuna grounded out to second, White scored, Riley to second.14–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play14–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging14–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 214–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 114–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking14–7
- 8White doubled to left, Merrifield scored and Laureano scored.14–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play14–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 114–6
- 7Ozuna homered to left (440 feet).14–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play14–4
- 7Monasterio walked, Chourio scored, Contreras to second, Mitchell to third.14–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball 414–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul14–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul14–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 314–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 214–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 114–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging14–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul14–3
- 5Contreras doubled to right, Mitchell scored.13–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 113–3
- 5Chourio homered to right (382 feet), Turang scored.12–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play12–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 312–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging12–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 212–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 112–3
- 5Bauers homered to right (401 feet), Frelick scored.10–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML MIL +105 / ATL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 51.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 4.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −7 | MIL: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +7 Elo | ATL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 7th of 3033–28 | Road vs home | 32–259th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–49 | 51–61 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–34 | 39–52 |
| Underdog | 37–15 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 64–47 | 40–69–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–7 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.