Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jorge SolerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7McMahon doubled to center, Doyle scored.5–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 7Soler homered to left center (397 feet), Kelenic scored.5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 7Laureano homered to right center (387 feet).3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Merrifield singled to center, Kelenic scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 4Blackmon singled to center, Díaz scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Díaz doubled to center, Toglia scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Rodgers singled to left, McMahon scored, Rodgers to second.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Doyle homered to center (432 feet), Blackmon scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Ozuna homered to center (448 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML ATL -170 / COL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 60.8%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -151
- COL +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.7 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +6 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +76 Elo | ATL 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 3028–28 | Road vs home | 25–2926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–62 | 56–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 39–53 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 55–50 |
| Overs–unders | 41–69–3 | 60–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 7–0 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.