New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-5
- Austin GomberPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Iglesias hit sacrifice fly to left, Taylor scored.9–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 8Lindor singled to right, Bader scored, Taylor to third.8–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 38–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 28–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 18–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 5Doyle hit sacrifice fly to left, Schunk scored, Tovar to third.7–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 27–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 5Vientos homered to left center (425 feet), Alonso scored.7–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–0
- 3Alonso homered to left center (454 feet).5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 1Alonso homered to center (471 feet), Martinez scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Martinez doubled to left, Iglesias scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Iglesias doubled to center, Lindor scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 58%
- ML NYM -155 / COL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 59.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -140
- COL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +3 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +67 Elo | NYM 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 8th of 3029–25 | Road vs home | 25–2824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–59 | 56–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–38 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 28–21 | 55–49 |
| Overs–unders | 57–55 | 60–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 5–6 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.