Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Hayden BirdsongPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Encarnación doubled to right, Chapman scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Chapman singled to right, Conforto scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 5Keith singled to right, Vierling scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5Vierling doubled to left, Dingler scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 2Dingler homered to center (406 feet), McKinstry scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 1Chapman singled to center, Fitzgerald scored and Wade Jr. scored, Conforto to second.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Vierling homered to left center (386 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 62%
- ML DET +150 / SF -180
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- SF: Elo 55.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- SF -161
- DET +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.7 – 4.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −2 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +39 Elo | SF 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 63.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 19th of 3029–32 | Road vs home | 35–234th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–57 | 58–59 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–31 | 24–36 |
| Underdog | 46–26 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders | 63–54 | 62–54–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–2 SF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.