San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mark CanhaBatting4-6, 2 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- DJ HerzPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Chapman singled to center, Bailey scored, Conforto to second.9–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–5
- 10Conforto singled to left, Wisely scored and Yastrzemski scored, Bailey to second.8–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 18–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–5
- 10Wisely reached on bunt single to first, Encarnación scored, Yastrzemski to second.6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9L. García Jr. homered to left (351 feet), Wood scored and Blankenhorn scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 9Canha doubled to right, Conforto scored on throwing error by right fielder Call, Fitzgerald scored and Ramos scored, Canha to third.5–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 5Abrams hit sacrifice fly to right, L. García Jr. scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Yastrzemski hit a ground rule double, Conforto scored, Canha to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Ruiz singled to left, Call scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Encarnación walked, Fitzgerald scored, Chapman to second, Conforto to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 41–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 52%
- ML SF -120 / WSH +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- SF: Elo 51.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +2 | SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +9 Elo | SF 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 25th of 3025–34 | Road vs home | 26–3026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–58 | 64–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–35 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 34–23 | 55–38 |
| Overs–unders | 61–52–1 | 58–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 4–8 WSH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.