San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chapman homered to left center (423 feet).4–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 8Encarnación homered to right center (380 feet).3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Conforto homered to left (362 feet).2–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 7Chapman doubled to center, Chapman scored on throwing error by shortstop De La Cruz.1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Fairchild homered to left (379 feet).0–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 4Stephenson homered to center (418 feet), Steer scored and France scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 30–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 3India homered to left (417 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Stephenson homered to center (387 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 55%
- ML SF +115 / CIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -124
- SF +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.0 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +6 | SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +24 Elo | CIN 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 25th of 3022–32 | Road vs home | 27–3024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–56 | 59–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–34 | 24–30 |
| Underdog | 33–22 | 35–20 |
| Overs–unders | 57–51–1 | 49–59–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 7–4 CIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.