San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Tyler FitzgeraldBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting0-4
- Andrew AbbottPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Fitzgerald homered to left center (391 feet).3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Fitzgerald doubled to left, Luciano scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Schmitt homered to left center (420 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 55%
- ML SF -135 / CIN +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- SF: Elo 44.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.5 – 4.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +37 Elo | CIN 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 26th of 3021–32 | Road vs home | 27–2922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–56 | 59–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–34 | 24–30 |
| Underdog | 33–22 | 35–19 |
| Overs–unders | 57–50–1 | 49–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–4 CIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.