Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bailey singled to right, Chapman scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 8Hill grounded out to third, Luciano scored, Villar to second.5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 8Bleday homered to right (374 feet).5–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5Rooker homered to left center (393 feet), Butler scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 3Butler homered to center (402 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Cameron homered to left (371 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 63%
- ML OAK +160 / SF -190
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- SF: Elo 57.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- SF -170
- OAK +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.2 – 4.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −2 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +53 Elo | SF 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.121st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 28th of 3018–37 | Road vs home | 32–226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–52 | 52–54 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 19–32 |
| Underdog | 48–45 | 33–22 |
| Overs–unders | 52–55 | 57–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 2–2 SF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.