San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Reds- Santiago EspinalBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Encarnación doubled to center, Conforto scored.8–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–2
- 8Conforto doubled to center, Chapman scored and Bailey scored.7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Fitzgerald homered to left center (402 feet), Wade Jr. scored.5–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 35–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 15–2
- 6Wade Jr. homered to right center (364 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Chapman homered to center (421 feet), Fitzgerald scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Espinal homered to left center (396 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Candelario homered to left center (387 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML SF -105 / CIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −8 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CIN: Carson Spiers: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +23 Elo | CIN 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 26th of 3022–33 | Road vs home | 28–3022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–57 | 60–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–34 | 25–30 |
| Underdog | 33–23 | 35–20 |
| Overs–unders | 58–51–1 | 50–59–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 7–5 CIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.