San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Randy RodriguezPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wood homered to center (423 feet), Ruiz scored.5–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–11
- 6Call doubled to center, Wood scored, Ramírez to third.5–9
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–9
- 4Blankenhorn grounded out to second, L. García Jr. scored, Ruiz to second.5–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–8
- 4Ramos singled to left, Fitzgerald scored on fielding error by left fielder Wood, Ramos to second.5–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 3Call doubled to center, Wood scored.4–7
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–7
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–7
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 34–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–7
- 3Ruiz homered to right center (401 feet).4–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 2Abrams homered to right center (387 feet), Vargas scored and Young scored.4–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 2Young singled to center, Call scored, Vargas to second.4–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 14–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 52%
- ML SF -120 / WSH +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- SF: Elo 54.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −3 | SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +29 Elo | SF 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 3024–33 | Road vs home | 25–2926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–57 | 63–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–34 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 34–23 | 54–37 |
| Overs–unders | 59–52–1 | 56–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 3–7 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.