San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Nationals- Juan YepezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Abrams singled to left, Adams scored, Lipscomb to second.7–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 6Encarnación singled to center, Yastrzemski scored.7–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 6Yastrzemski tripled to right, Fitzgerald scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 5Chapman homered to left center (415 feet).5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Ramos homered to left center (422 feet).4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 4Yastrzemski homered to right center (422 feet).3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 3Yepez homered to left (403 feet), Call scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Call singled to left, Young scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Chapman reached on infield single to third, Ramos scored, Conforto to second.2–0
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 60%
- ML SF -165 / WSH +140
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- SF: Elo 49.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SF -149
- WSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +13 | SF: Blake Snell: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +5 Elo | WSH 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.725th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 25th of 3024–34 | Road vs home | 26–2926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–58 | 64–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–35 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 34–23 | 55–37 |
| Overs–unders | 60–52–1 | 57–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 3–8 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.