Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Parker MeadowsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Polanco singled to center, Marlowe scored.4–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 34–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8Meadows homered to right (415 feet).4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Raley homered to center (407 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pérez singled to right, Báez scored, Keith to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 5Keith singled to right, McKinstry scored, Báez to third.2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Meadows singled to center, Pérez scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 64%
- ML DET +170 / SEA -205
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 59.6%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- SEA -181
- DET +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.1 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −1 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +68 Elo | SEA 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 61.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 3027–29 | Road vs home | 33–248th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–56 | 47–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–31 | 27–47 |
| Underdog | 42–25 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 62–50 | 47–62–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–3 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.