Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Smith doubled to left, Devers scored, O'Neill to third.10–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 110–6
- 7O'Neill singled to left, Yoshida scored, Devers to second.10–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 210–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging10–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 110–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–5
- 7Devers singled to center, Rafaela scored, Yoshida to third.10–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–4
- 6Polanco scored on throwing error by catcher Wong, Moore stole third.10–3
- 6Polanco scored on throwing error by catcher Wong, Moore stole third.10–3
- 6Raleigh scored on Ramírez wild pitch, Polanco to third on wild pitch by Ramírez.9–3
- 6Raleigh scored on Ramírez wild pitch, Polanco to third on wild pitch by Ramírez.9–3
- 6Polanco doubled to center, Robles scored, Raleigh to third.8–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 5Moore doubled to center, Polanco scored, Robles scored and Arozarena scored.7–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 5Turner grounded out to first, Rivas scored, Arozarena to second, Robles to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 5Arozarena grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Haniger scored, Robles safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Rafaela, Rivas to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Polanco homered to center (416 feet).2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 3Devers homered to left (345 feet), Abreu scored and Yoshida scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 1Turner singled to right, Robles scored, Turner thrown out at second.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML SEA -115 / BOS -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 49.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.3 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | 0 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +6 Elo | BOS 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 18th of 3025–29 | Road vs home | 26–2822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–62 | 48–58 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–46 | 20–39 |
| Underdog | 18–16 | 28–19 |
| Overs–unders | 44–60–2 | 52–52–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–6 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.