New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9LeMahieu hit sacrifice fly to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.8–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 8Cabrera hit a ground rule double, Rice scored and Torres scored.7–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 7Wells hit sacrifice fly to left, Verdugo scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 4Wong homered to left center (378 feet).4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Refsnyder homered to left center (412 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Rice hit sacrifice fly to center, Wells scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Torres singled to center, Judge scored and Wells scored, Torres thrown out at second.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Judge singled to right, Verdugo scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 51%
- ML NYY -115 / BOS -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.8 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +2 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +6 Elo | NYY 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3034–22 | Road vs home | 25–2724th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–50 | 47–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 34–45 | 19–38 |
| Underdog | 21–5 | 28–19 |
| Overs–unders | 58–46–1 | 50–52–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 7–14 BOS in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 21.