New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Torres doubled to left, Judge scored and Soto scored.11–8
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–8
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging11–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 211–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 111–8
- 10Wells hit sacrifice fly to left, Cabrera scored.9–8
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–8
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 29–8
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 19–8
- 9Grisham doubled to center, Jones scored.8–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 28–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 18–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–8
- 8Judge doubled to center, Verdugo scored, Soto thrown out at home.7–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–8
- 7Hamilton doubled to left, Smith scored, Wong to third.6–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–8
- 7O'Neill homered to left center (375 feet).6–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 7Rice hit sacrifice fly to center, Judge scored.6–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 36–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML NYY +105 / BOS -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- NYY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +1 | NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +7 Elo | NYY 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3033–22 | Road vs home | 25–2623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–50 | 47–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 34–45 | 19–37 |
| Underdog | 20–5 | 28–19 |
| Overs–unders | 57–46–1 | 49–52–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–14 BOS in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 20.