New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yoshida singled to center, Wong scored and Abreu scored.7–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–9
- 8Abreu doubled to center, Refsnyder scored, Wong to third.7–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 7Rafaela homered to left (398 feet), Yoshida scored.7–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging7–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 37–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 7Wells homered to right (395 feet).7–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 7Judge homered to center (470 feet), Cabrera scored and Soto scored.6–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Yoshida hit sacrifice fly to center, Devers scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Verdugo hit sacrifice fly to left, Grisham scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Grisham doubled to left, Volpe scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Refsnyder doubled to left, González scored, Duran to third.1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Devers singled to left, Wong scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Volpe homered to center (409 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML NYY -125 / BOS +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.9 – 4.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −15 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +11 Elo | NYY 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3033–21 | Road vs home | 24–2623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–49 | 46–56 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 34–44 | 19–37 |
| Underdog | 20–5 | 27–19 |
| Overs–unders | 56–46–1 | 48–52–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–13 BOS in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 19.