Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching2.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vosler grounded out to second, Moore scored.7–14
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–14
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 17–14
- 8Raley scored on Wingenter wild pitch, Moore to third on wild pitch by Wingenter.6–14
- 8Raley scored on Wingenter wild pitch, Moore to third on wild pitch by Wingenter.6–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–14
- 8Moore doubled to left, Raleigh scored and Rivas scored, Raley to third.5–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–14
- 6González homered to center (404 feet), Yoshida scored.3–14
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–14
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–14
- 6Raleigh homered to right (413 feet).3–12
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–12
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–12
- 6Arozarena homered to left (367 feet).2–12
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–12
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–12
- 5Duran doubled to left, Rafaela scored.1–12
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–12
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–12
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–12
- 5Smith homered to left (353 feet).1–11
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–11
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 4Yoshida singled to right, Duran scored and Abreu scored.1–10
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–10
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–10
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–10
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–10
- 4Abreu doubled to left, Rafaela scored, Duran to third.1–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 4Polanco hit sacrifice fly to left, Arozarena scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML SEA +105 / BOS -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 46.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 4.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −16 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +23 Elo | SEA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 18th of 3025–28 | Road vs home | 25–2824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–61 | 47–58 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–46 | 19–39 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 28–19 |
| Overs–unders | 43–60–2 | 51–52–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–5 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.