Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Brooks BaldwinBatting3-4
- Erick FeddePitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8DeJong scored on Muñoz wild pitch, Lee to second on wild pitch by Muñoz, Baldwin to third on wild pitch by Muñoz.6–3
- 8DeJong scored on Muñoz wild pitch, Lee to second on wild pitch by Muñoz, Baldwin to third on wild pitch by Muñoz.6–3
- 8Polanco singled to right, Arozarena scored, Raleigh to second.6–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 6Baldwin scored on error, Robinson safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Moore.5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5Polanco homered to right (382 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Raleigh homered to right center (429 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Robles singled to left, Rojas scored, Moore to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 4Moore singled to right, Haniger scored, Rojas to second.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Polanco homered to center (426 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Vaughn reached on infield single to shortstop, Robert Jr. scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML SEA -155 / CHW +130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 62.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -140
- CHW +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 3.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +9 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +90 Elo | SEA 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.129th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −2.030th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 20th of 3023–28 | Road vs home | 17–3530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–61 | 50–56 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–46 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 44–53 |
| Overs–unders | 42–60–2 | 47–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 8–3 CHW in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.