Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Josh RojasBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Tommy PhamBatting3-4
- Sammy PeraltaPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Polanco homered to left center (421 feet), Raleigh scored.10–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 110–0
- 1Robles homered to left (411 feet).8–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 38–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 28–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 1Moore homered to left center (392 feet).7–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 27–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 1Rojas homered to right center (386 feet), Vosler scored and Garver scored.6–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 1Garver doubled to left, Haniger scored, Vosler to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Vosler singled to right, Polanco scored and Raleigh scored, Haniger to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 62%
- ML SEA -180 / CHW +150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 62.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -161
- CHW +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 3.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1398 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +11 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Drew Thorpe: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +87 Elo | SEA 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.029th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.930th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3022–28 | Road vs home | 17–3430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–61 | 50–55 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–46 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 44–52 |
| Overs–unders | 41–60–2 | 46–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 7–3 CHW in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.