Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Paul DeJongBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chad KuhlPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7DeJong homered to center (430 feet), Benintendi scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 36–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 4Raleigh singled to left, Robles scored, Arozarena to second.6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 3Pham singled to right, Lee scored, Lopez to second.5–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 3Polanco scored on error and Moore scored on error, Haniger safe at first on fielding error by third baseman DeJong.5–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 2Rivas grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Moore scored, Haniger out at second.3–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Raleigh homered to left center (379 feet), Arozarena scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 38%
- Fair odds
- CHW -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.6 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +17 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +83 Elo | SEA 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.129th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −2.030th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 19th of 3024–28 | Road vs home | 17–3630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–61 | 50–57 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–46 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 44–54 |
| Overs–unders | 43–60–2 | 48–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 9–3 CHW in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.