Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4
- Tanner BanksPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Justin TurnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wilson singled to center, Marsh scored, Realmuto to second.2–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 9Marsh tripled to right, Bohm scored.1–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–10
- 7Haniger homered to left center (410 feet).0–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–10
- 4Rojas grounded into fielder's choice to first, Arozarena scored, Turner out at second, Raleigh to third.0–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 2Turner homered to left (397 feet), Robles scored, Arozarena scored and Raleigh scored.0–8
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–8
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–8
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–8
- 2Raley homered to right center (459 feet), Moore scored and Haniger scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Robles homered to left (426 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML PHI -105 / SEA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 46.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −2 | PHI: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +25 Elo | PHI 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 3026–22 | Road vs home | 31–2310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–55 | 46–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 43–46 | 26–46 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 49–58–1 | 45–61–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–1 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.