Cleveland Guardians at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting1-3
- Carlos CarrascoPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Castellanos homered to right (351 feet).0–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 4Schwarber homered to center (418 feet), Castellanos scored and Hays scored.0–7
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 4Marsh homered to right (402 feet), Realmuto scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 4Harper homered to left (365 feet), Turner scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML CLE +135 / PHI -160
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.3%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -145
- CLE +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 5.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +1 | CLE: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +66 Elo | PHI 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 10th of 3029–26 | Road vs home | 37–161st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–49 | 52–51 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–35 | 42–42 |
| Underdog | 28–14 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 51–50–2 | 46–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–1 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.