Cleveland Guardians at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Stott homered to right (416 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Martínez singled to left, Rocchio scored, Bo Naylor to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Bo Naylor sacrificed, Giménez scored, Rocchio to second.2–0
- 1Fry singled to center, Martínez scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML CLE +155 / PHI -185
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -166
- CLE +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −2 | CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +54 Elo | PHI 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 11th of 3028–26 | Road vs home | 37–151st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–49 | 52–50 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–35 | 42–41 |
| Underdog | 27–14 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 51–49–2 | 46–55–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.