New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- DJ LeMahieuBatting2-4, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Castellanos singled to right, Bohm scored.6–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 6Castellanos grounded out to third, Bohm scored.6–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 26–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 6LeMahieu doubled to right, Verdugo scored and Volpe scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 5Wilson homered to left center (397 feet).4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 4Castellanos singled to left, Hays scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 4Bohm grounded out to shortstop, Schwarber scored, Hays to third.4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2LeMahieu homered to center (400 feet), Stanton scored, Chisholm Jr. scored and Verdugo scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML NYY +100 / PHI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- NYY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −1 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +42 Elo | PHI 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 1st of 3037–22 | Road vs home | 38–192nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–50 | 53–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 34–45 | 43–45 |
| Underdog | 24–5 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 61–46–1 | 48–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 4–1 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.