New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (388 feet), Stanton scored.14–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play14–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul14–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 214–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 114–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking14–4
- 8Soto doubled to left, Verdugo scored.12–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–4
- 8Volpe homered to left center (369 feet), Torres scored.11–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul11–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 211–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul11–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–4
- 7Stott scored on Tonkin wild pitch, Schwarber to second on wild pitch by Tonkin.9–4
- 7Stott scored on Tonkin wild pitch, Schwarber to second on wild pitch by Tonkin.9–4
- 7Judge homered to left center (430 feet), Soto scored.9–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 6Marsh singled to right, Turner scored, Bohm to third.7–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 27–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 5Wells tripled to center, Verdugo scored and Soto scored.7–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 17–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 5Soto doubled to right, Rice scored and Volpe scored, Verdugo to third.5–2
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 35–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML NYY +115 / PHI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- NYY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.0 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +12 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +49 Elo | PHI 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3035–22 | Road vs home | 38–171st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–50 | 53–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 34–45 | 43–43 |
| Underdog | 22–5 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 59–46–1 | 46–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.