Cleveland Guardians at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jhonkensy NoelBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Kolby AllardPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kwan homered to right (371 feet).4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Noel homered to center (436 feet), Ramírez scored and Fry scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 3Schwarber homered to right center (404 feet), Stubbs scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Schwarber homered to left center (398 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML CLE +110 / PHI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.6 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −11 | CLE: Joey Cantillo (no track record yet) · PHI: Kolby Allard: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +55 Elo | PHI 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 3029–27 | Road vs home | 38–161st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–50 | 53–51 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–35 | 43–42 |
| Underdog | 28–15 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 51–51–2 | 46–57–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–2 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.