New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting3-6, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Austin HaysBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 12Torres sacrificed into double play, center to center to first to shortstop, Wells scored, Chisholm Jr. thrown out at second.7–6
- 12Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–6
- 12Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–6
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 11Hays singled to left, Stott scored.6–6
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 16–6
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–6
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–6
- 11Verdugo hit sacrifice fly to center, Volpe scored.6–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Rojas scored on Holmes wild pitch, Hays to second on wild pitch by Holmes.5–5
- 9Rojas scored on Holmes wild pitch, Hays to second on wild pitch by Holmes.5–5
- 7Chisholm Jr. homered to right (362 feet), Soto scored and Judge scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (417 feet).2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 2Hays homered to left (351 feet), Realmuto scored and Stott scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 1Bohm doubled to center, Schwarber scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Chisholm Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to first, Verdugo scored, Judge out at second, Soto to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML NYY +120 / PHI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -130
- NYY +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.0 – 5.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −2 | NYY: Will Warren (no track record yet) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +29 Elo | PHI 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 1st of 3036–22 | Road vs home | 38–182nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–50 | 53–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 34–45 | 43–44 |
| Underdog | 23–5 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 60–46–1 | 47–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–1 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.