Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting1-4
- Keider MonteroPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Witt Jr. doubled to center, Isbel scored.7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 8Pasquantino homered to right (398 feet).6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 8Witt Jr. homered to left center (384 feet).5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 7Fermin singled to right, Massey scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Madris hit sacrifice fly to left, Keith scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pasquantino homered to right (367 feet), Garcia scored and Witt Jr. scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 59%
- ML KC -160 / DET +135
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- KC: Elo 51.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -145
- DET +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.7 – 3.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −16 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +12 Elo | KC 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 18th of 3024–27 | Road vs home | 25–2825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–45 | 54–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–25 | 14–30 |
| Underdog | 35–20 | 40–24 |
| Overs–unders | 45–61–1 | 60–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 7–12 DET in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 19.