Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Witt Jr. homered to left center (384 feet), Garcia scored, Frazier scored and Massey scored.8–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 8Melendez homered to right (382 feet).4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 8Renfroe homered to right (354 feet).3–5
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Vaughn homered to left center (424 feet).2–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 6DeJong singled to right, Benintendi scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 6Benintendi doubled to right, Jiménez scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Robert Jr. singled to right, Lopez scored, Vaughn to second.2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Isbel singled to right, Garcia scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Perez reached on infield single to catcher, Witt Jr. scored on error, Perez safe at second on throwing error by catcher Robinson.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Sheets singled to center, Robert Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 62%
- ML KC -180 / CHW +150
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- KC: Elo 63.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- KC -161
- CHW +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 5.3 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −26 | KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +93 Elo | KC 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.129th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −2.030th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3021–27 | Road vs home | 17–3730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–44 | 50–57 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–24 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 35–20 | 44–54 |
| Overs–unders | 43–60–1 | 48–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 16–7 CHW in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 23.