Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan SammonsPitching7.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pérez homered to right center (390 feet), Urshela scored.8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Urshela hit sacrifice fly to center, Madris scored, Dingler to third.8–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking8–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 28–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 7Dingler doubled to left, Canha scored, Madris to third.8–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 7Ramírez homered to left center (398 feet).8–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 6Bo Naylor homered to right (372 feet), J. Naylor scored and Noel scored.7–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 3Ramírez homered to left center (451 feet).4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Noel singled to left, J. Naylor scored, Giménez to second.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1J. Naylor singled to center, Ramírez scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Ramírez doubled to right, Martínez scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 59%
- ML CLE -160 / DET +135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 50.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -145
- DET +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.2 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +14 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Beau Brieske: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +5 Elo | CLE 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 10th of 3030–27 | Road vs home | 25–2622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–50 | 54–52 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 26–35 | 14–30 |
| Underdog | 29–15 | 40–22 |
| Overs–unders | 51–52–2 | 59–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–15 DET in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.