Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Drew ThorpePitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fermin singled to left, Melendez scored, Hampson to third.10–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 210–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–3
- 9Melendez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Frazier scored, Renfroe out at second.9–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–3
- 9Pasquantino homered to right (402 feet), Witt Jr. scored.8–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 18–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 5Renfroe hit sacrifice fly to center, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to third.6–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 5Perez doubled to center, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to third.5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 3Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.4–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 2Fletcher singled to left, Benintendi scored.3–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 2Benintendi doubled to right, Sosa scored and Sheets scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Fermin homered to left center (393 feet), DeJong scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Pasquantino singled to right, Garcia scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 10 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- KC 68%
- ML KC -240 / CHW +200
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- KC: Elo 63.4%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- KC -212
- CHW +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 5.1 – 3.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −1 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Drew Thorpe: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +95 Elo | KC 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.129th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −2.030th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 19th of 3023–27 | Road vs home | 17–3930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–45 | 51–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–25 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 35–20 | 45–55 |
| Overs–unders | 44–61–1 | 49–59–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 18–7 CHW in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 25.