Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Bligh MadrisBatting2-3
- Tyler HoltonPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rocchio homered to left center (399 feet).5–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 8Ramírez homered to right (373 feet), Thomas scored.4–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 5Schneemann doubled to right, Freeman scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4J. Naylor homered to right (367 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML CLE -135 / DET +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 50.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 3.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +6 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Tyler Holton: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE 0 Elo | CLE 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3031–27 | Road vs home | 25–2725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–50 | 54–53 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–35 | 14–30 |
| Underdog | 29–15 | 40–23 |
| Overs–unders | 52–52–2 | 60–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 10–15 DET in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.