Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting1-5, 3 RBI
- Kolby AllardPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Mitch HanigerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Haniger walked, Arozarena scored, Moore to second, Raleigh to third.5–6
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball 45–6
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 35–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 25–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 15–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 6Rojas reached on infield single to first, Haniger scored, Raley out at home on runner's fielder's choice.5–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Raley doubled to right, Turner scored and Polanco scored, Haniger to third.5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Polanco singled to right, Arozarena scored, Turner to second.5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 5Haniger homered to left center (388 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Marsh singled to right, Turner scored and Bohm scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 15–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5Bohm singled to center, Hays scored and Schwarber scored, Turner to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Bohm grounded out to third, Schwarber scored, Turner to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML PHI +100 / SEA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −48 | −4 | PHI: Orion Kerkering: team allows 2.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +39 Elo | SEA 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 8th of 3026–23 | Road vs home | 32–239th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–56 | 47–62 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 43–46 | 27–46 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 50–58–1 | 46–61–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–2 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.