Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Mariners- Victor RoblesBatting1-3
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Realmuto singled to center, Marsh scored.6–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 16–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 8Bohm homered to left (380 feet).5–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Harper homered to right center (391 feet), Turner scored.4–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 8Stott homered to right center (404 feet).2–0
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Schwarber homered to right (428 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML PHI -125 / SEA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 51.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.4 – 3.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −7 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +11 Elo | PHI 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 10th of 3026–24 | Road vs home | 33–237th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–56 | 47–63 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 43–46 | 27–47 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 51–58–1 | 47–61–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–3 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.