Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Paul DeJongBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Bligh MadrisBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Pérez singled to right, Meadows scored.5–6
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 11Meadows tripled to right, Vilade scored.5–5
- 11Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–5
- 11Pitch 6 : Ball 35–5
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball 25–5
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 15–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 11Renfroe singled to left, Blanco scored.5–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 10Malloy doubled to right, Pérez scored.4–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 10Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Isbel scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 9Báez doubled to left, McKinstry scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 9Madris homered to center (422 feet).3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 7DeJong homered to left (393 feet), Massey scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 52%
- ML KC -120 / DET +100
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- KC: Elo 48.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.8 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +3 | KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tyler Holton: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +11 Elo | DET 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 16th of 3026–27 | Road vs home | 25–3027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–45 | 54–56 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–25 | 14–31 |
| Underdog | 36–20 | 40–25 |
| Overs–unders | 46–62–1 | 61–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 9–12 DET in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.