Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Justyn-Henry MalloyBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7DeJong singled to right, Renfroe scored, Hampson to second, Fermin to third.9–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 19–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–2
- 7Fermin singled to left, Perez scored, Renfroe to second.8–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Perez doubled to right, Pasquantino scored.7–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Witt Jr. scored on Miller wild pitch, Pasquantino to third on wild pitch by Miller.6–2
- 7Witt Jr. scored on Miller wild pitch, Pasquantino to third on wild pitch by Miller.6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 7Pasquantino singled to left, Blanco scored and Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to second.5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4DeJong hit sacrifice fly to left, Renfroe scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 4Renfroe doubled to left, Perez scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Perez homered to left center (448 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Malloy homered to left (403 feet), Vierling scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML KC +100 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- DET: Elo 54.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.2 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +19 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.96 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +28 Elo | DET 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 17th of 3025–27 | Road vs home | 25–2926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–45 | 54–55 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–25 | 14–30 |
| Underdog | 35–20 | 40–25 |
| Overs–unders | 45–62–1 | 60–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 8–12 DET in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 20.