Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-4
- Kenta MaedaPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Giants- Mark CanhaBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Canha hit sacrifice fly to left, Conforto scored.2–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 22–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 12–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 8Bailey hit sacrifice fly to center, Canha scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Conforto hit sacrifice fly to left, Fitzgerald scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Báez scored on throwing error by catcher Casali.2–0
- 5Báez scored on throwing error by catcher Casali.2–0
- 2Vilade hit sacrifice fly to left, Urshela scored on error, Pérez safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Conforto.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 64%
- ML DET +165 / SF -200
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- SF: Elo 53.7%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- SF -177
- DET +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.1 – 4.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +1 | DET: Beau Brieske: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +25 Elo | SF 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3029–30 | Road vs home | 33–237th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–56 | 57–58 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–31 | 23–35 |
| Underdog | 45–25 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders | 63–52 | 62–52–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–0 SF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.