Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Urshela singled to left, Pérez scored and Vierling scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Vierling singled to left, Rogers scored, Pérez to third.4–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Raleigh homered to center (427 feet), Arozarena scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 4Rogers homered to left (406 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Madris doubled to right, Vierling scored on fielding error by right fielder Haniger.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pérez homered to right (358 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML DET +115 / SEA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +7 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +41 Elo | SEA 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 15th of 3028–29 | Road vs home | 33–259th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–56 | 47–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–31 | 27–48 |
| Underdog | 43–25 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 62–51 | 47–63–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–3 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.