Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Parker MeadowsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bryan SammonsPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Haniger doubled to center, Bliss scored, Raley scored and Arozarena scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Raley homered to right center (363 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5McKinstry doubled to right, Malloy scored and Meadows scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Meadows doubled to right, Madris scored, Malloy to third.1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 64%
- ML DET +170 / SEA -205
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.2%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- SEA -181
- DET +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.1 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +1 | DET: Brenan Hanifee (no track record yet) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +43 Elo | SEA 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 14th of 3029–29 | Road vs home | 33–269th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–56 | 47–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–31 | 27–49 |
| Underdog | 44–25 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 63–51 | 48–63–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–3 SEA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.