Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Travis d'ArnaudBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Giants- Tyler FitzgeraldBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10d'Arnaud reached on infield single to second, Williams scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 14–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 8Wade Jr. scored on Johnson wild pitch.3–3
- 8Wade Jr. scored on Johnson wild pitch.3–3
- 3Fitzgerald homered to left center (425 feet).3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 3d'Arnaud homered to left (381 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Bailey grounded out to second, Chapman scored, Yastrzemski to second.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Soler doubled to center, Merrifield scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Laureano homered to right (364 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 50%
- ML ATL -110 / SF -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- SF: Elo 51.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SF -100
- ATL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | 0 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 1.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +9 Elo | SF 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 14th of 3030–30 | Road vs home | 35–257th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–64 | 58–61 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–55 | 24–38 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders | 44–70–3 | 63–55–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–4 SF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.