Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jorge SolerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Jake CaveBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rodgers doubled to center, McMahon scored and Tovar scored.8–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–9
- 8McMahon singled to center, Blackmon scored, Tovar to third.8–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–7
- 8Blackmon singled to center, Hilliard scored and Schunk scored.8–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–6
- 8Cave homered to left center (382 feet), Toglia scored.8–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 8Soler homered to center (449 feet).8–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 28–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 7Olson doubled to right, Riley scored.7–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–2
- 7Soler homered to left center (444 feet), Merrifield scored and White scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 36–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 4Stallings singled to right, Rodgers scored, Cave to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Cave grounded into fielder's choice to second, McMahon scored, Toglia out at second, Rodgers to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4d'Arnaud homered to left center (436 feet), Olson scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Riley homered to center (442 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 61%
- ML ATL -175 / COL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 62.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -156
- COL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.7 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +11 | ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +91 Elo | ATL 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 3029–29 | Road vs home | 26–3025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–63 | 57–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 40–54 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 56–51 |
| Overs–unders | 43–69–3 | 62–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 8–1 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.