Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting1-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Giants- Tyler FitzgeraldBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean HjellePitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Laureano singled to left, Olson scored.13–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play13–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking13–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 313–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 213–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–2
- 9Harris II grounded out to second, Ozuna scored, Arcia to second, Olson to third.12–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–2
- 8Murphy homered to left (406 feet), Laureano scored.11–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–2
- 7Wisely singled to right, Bailey scored.9–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Kelenic doubled to right, Merrifield scored and Laureano scored, Kelenic to third.9–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 5Riley homered to left (371 feet).7–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 27–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 3Olson homered to left center (371 feet).6–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 1Fitzgerald homered to left (358 feet).5–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 1Harris II homered to right (423 feet), Riley scored, Olson scored and Arcia scored.5–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 1Arcia walked, Soler scored, Olson to second, Riley to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 41–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 57%
- ML ATL +120 / SF -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- SF: Elo 50.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SF -130
- ATL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.5 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +4 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +4 Elo | SF 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 3031–30 | Road vs home | 35–269th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–64 | 58–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–55 | 24–39 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders | 44–71–3 | 63–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 7–4 SF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.