Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Kevin PillarBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching7.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Jacob YoungBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9L. García Jr. walked, Adams scored, Call to second, Nuñez to third.6–4
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball 46–4
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 36–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 9Call reached on infield single to second, Young scored, Nuñez to second, Adams to third.6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 8L. García Jr. singled to center, Nuñez scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 36–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 8Young homered to left (389 feet).6–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 7Stefanic walked, Drury scored, Thaiss to second, Adell to third.6–0
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball 46–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 36–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 4Pillar doubled to left, Adell scored, Neto scored and Schanuel scored, Pillar to third.5–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Stefanic grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Moniak scored, Thaiss out at second, Adell to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 58%
- ML LAA +130 / WSH -155
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 56.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -140
- LAA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.9 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | −2 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 1.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +49 Elo | WSH 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3025–31 | Road vs home | 28–3122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–53 | 65–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–21 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 58–32 | 56–39 |
| Overs–unders | 57–60 | 59–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–3 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.