Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Oswaldo CabreraBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cabrera homered to left (373 feet).9–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 29–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 8Stanton singled to center, Verdugo scored, Soto to second.9–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 8Soto singled to center, LeMahieu scored, Verdugo to second.9–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–2
- 8Neto singled to left, Moniak scored, Schanuel to second.9–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 5Moniak singled to right, Adell scored, Moniak thrown out at second, Drury to third.8–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 5Adell doubled to center, O'Hoppe scored, Rendon scored and Pillar scored.7–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 27–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 5Pillar singled to right, Neto scored and Stefanic scored, O'Hoppe to second.4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 3Schanuel singled to right, Stefanic scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul2–1
- 2Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (411 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Schanuel homered to right center (401 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 68%
- ML LAA +200 / NYY -250
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.8%, market 68.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -214
- LAA +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.4 – 5.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −14 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +76 Elo | NYY 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 66.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 68.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 21st of 3024–29 | Road vs home | 30–2513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–52 | 61–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 36–48 |
| Underdog | 56–32 | 25–5 |
| Overs–unders | 56–58 | 65–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 6–5 NYY in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.