Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching2.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Horwitz singled to right, Serven scored, Guerrero Jr. thrown out at third.8–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 5Wells singled to center, Soto scored on fielding error by center fielder Varsho, Judge to second.7–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging7–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 27–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 5Volpe homered to right center (403 feet), Rice scored.7–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 3Serven singled to center, Horwitz scored and Schneider scored, Jimenez to second.7–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 3Clement reached on infield single to second, Guerrero Jr. scored, Horwitz to second.5–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 3Horwitz singled to left, Loperfido scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 1Judge homered to left center (477 feet), Soto scored.3–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 1Clement doubled to left, Horwitz scored and Varsho scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Loperfido scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML TOR +145 / NYY -170
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- NYY -154
- TOR +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 5.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −1 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +58 Elo | NYY 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3025–31 | Road vs home | 27–2314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–57 | 59–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–34 | 34–45 |
| Underdog | 30–23 | 25–5 |
| Overs–unders | 61–47–1 | 62–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 11–12 NYY in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.